I started following the election results from around 7, with the Star newspaper’s live feed in a background window. Later I added Malaysiakini, which had less conservative estimates, as well. Through the evening, as I had dinner and did some work, the numbers kept ticking up, mostly the ruling Barisan Nasional to begin with (there was a flood of early returns from Sarawak which is historially reliably BN territory). Then the opposition, Pakatan Harapan got a few seats, and the numbers grew so they were neck and neck. By 11 or so, they were in the 40s or 50s. Then PH got ahead. I went to sleep, thinking that I would see the inevitable BN victory in the morning.
I woke up at around 1.30 and checked to find that PH was now ahead, and it stayed ahead, pulling forward slightly but inexorably. I turned to Reddit where I saw disbelief, excitement, and a lot of rumours and worry about rioting, vote rigging, about the army being called out, the currency crashing, the checkpoints with Singapore closed. This is a country which has been ruled by a single party since its independence, and fear and despair at this are equally dominant. The fear is a fear of change and of unrest, of the race riots that occurred back in the 1960s.
Then, around 3, I turned on the TV streaming, which I’d so far not bothered with, as it as in Bahasa. I came on just as Mahathir’s press conference began, in English, in which he announced victory. So, a historic, truly historic election. Whether there is any change remains to be seen of course, and I think people are nervously awaiting Najib’s 11am press conference to see if BN will actually hand over power. After all, there has never before been a transfer of power. Malaysia remains a one-party state and you can get a sense of the disorientation in the media and the few government statements. UMNO, the party of the prime minister, Najib, is huddled up in their office and planning a press conference. He will undoubtedly, and deservedly, get the blame for the loss. 1MDB, the imposition of GST (much as I feel it’s a good thing), the arrogance and entitlement, and a series of other allegations and scandals ranging from alleged conspiracies to the Hajj fund scandal, and a general national feeling of decline and opportunities lost lie at the heart of their defeat. The day before the election, Najib announced a series of incentives including national holidays after the elections, and exception from income tax for young poeple, which were blatant vote buying measures and now, in retrospect, also measures of desperation.
How expected was this opposition victory? My sense is, not really. Or rather, it was hard to tell if disatisfaction would trump fear, inertia and the full machinery of government. All the articles about post-election contingencies that I saw, both within and outside the country, discussed several scenarios in which the BN won, a terrible scenario in which no one had a clear majority, and as an afterthought ‘oh what if the opposition squeaks through’. Reading the local press as avidly I do, it was notable how the tide of all institutions was guided by the ruling party. Every structure of government and society has, over the years, been honed to support it. In this context, this is really a remarkable turn of events. It remains to be seen if this is a case of ‘same as the old boss’, an aberration, or a decline into rubbishy political go-arounds. Or, perhaps, an opportunity for change.
Would it have happened without Mahathir? No, probably not. I think he had two functions in this election: first, as the architect of Bumiputra policies, he gave a way for Malays to get over their fear of voting for another party. Second, he was a reminder of a time when Malaysia believed it was on the way to becoming a ‘developed country’. (Notably, the Chinese and Indian members of BN were thrashed, leaving it very much a Malay/Borneo coalition).
Anyhow, we now have two extra public holidays. Yesterday, election day on Wednesday, was a holiday and now today, and tomorrow are also off. I remain amazed that holidays can be declared so easily, but I suppose that is an advantage of being an extractive economy. You don’t need a productive population, really.
Last night it was eerily quiet as the results were coming in, a great contrast from the mat rempits of the previous night. Even after Mahathir’s victory speech it remained quiet and only much later did I hear celebrations, though they were distant and not sustained. I hear they were enthusiastic, though, so perhaps I was projecting my own assumptions onto them.